Wednesday, October 07, 2009

The Taper Phase

The Detroit marathon is only 10 days away. After hard training for 3 months I'm in the relaxing, taper phase. It is very enjoyable. Now I get to sit around and think about the upcoming race. My goals are:
  • A Goal - sub 4 hours, the 4th attempt at my personal goal
  • B Goal - sub 4:10, Schaaf brother's record
  • C Goal - sub 4:18:56, my personal record
  • D Goal - sub 4:30
  • F Goal - finish

I feel good about my training.

  • I ran more miles this year than any other marathon
  • I think my training was smarter - fewer number of runs, longer average distance
  • I'm about 5 lbs lighter than any other year
  • More experienced - I know the value of resting before the race (New York) and not starting too fast (Chicago)

My bold predictions

  • Chance of sub 4:00 - 20%
  • Chance of 4-4:10 - 30%
  • Chance of 4:10-4:18:56 - 30%
  • Chance of >4:18:56 - 20%
  • Exact prediction - 4:08. Despite my goal of sub 4, I think the last 6 miles will destroy me again. I'll probably be on pace through 18 miles and then drop off at the end.
  • Derek will beat me by between 1 and 10 minutes. I've done most of my training with him, and the punk always has a little more energy than me at the end. He'll ride my coat tails until I start slowing and then he'll cruise by me. It'll all come down to when I start dying.

It is amazing how much difference training makes, and how quickly your body loses its ability.

-Last summer I was in great shape. After completing a half ironman I took 5 full weeks off of running to let my body heal. My first run after the hiatus was the Zeeland Pumpkinfest 5k. I ran as hard as I could, felt awful, and finished in 27:15.

- This year, I ran 146 miles in September and am in peak running shape. I ran 7.5 miles TO THE START of the Zeeland Pumpkinfest 5k just to tire myself out. I ran the race hard, felt decent, and finished in 22:50. It was very rewarding.


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